Petro-Lwa Strategy IV · User Manual
Crash thunder · Capped risk · Uncapped downside profit
The Bear Put Backspread is the bear-market weapon. You sell one put close to the money and buy two puts lower down — a 2:1 ratio. The cash you receive from the short put pays for most of the two longs, so entry cost is often near zero. If price stays flat or rises, you keep the small credit. If the asset crashes, the two long puts gear up dramatically and produce uncapped profit. Petro-Lwa arms this either on a confirmed bearish trend break OR when price is near an all-time high with rich premium — both classic crash setups.
The Pine indicator PETRO-LWA-IV.pine fires when either of these two conditions is true:
| Pathway | Conditions |
|---|---|
| Confirmed bear | Price < EMA50 < EMA200 & DD ≤ -10% from 180-bar high |
| Top-of-market | Within -8% of ATH & IV Rank ≥ 60 |
Translation: either the breakdown is here, or euphoria has stretched the rubber band tight.
Open a BTC/USD chart. Click Pine Editor, paste, Save, then Add to chart.
A red triangle drops above the bar (signalling a short bias) with the live drawdown and IV-rank values readable from the label.
Right-click → Add alert. Condition: “PETRO IV · Bear Backspread”. Webhook URL for the bridge.
Pick an expiry 30-60 days out. Sell 1 ATM put (the financing leg). Buy 2 puts at -10 to -15% below spot. Net target: a small credit or zero. Profit explodes if BTC dumps; max loss is the difference between the two strike levels minus credit. Exit if price rallies above your short-put strike — the thesis is wrong.